Tüm Eczacı İşverenler
Sendikasının yaptığı ankete göre eczane sahibi eczacıların yüzde 73’ü hâlinden
hiç memnun değil. Hatta bunun yüzde 23’ü iş değişikliği yapmayı düşünüyor.
Sebebini az çok biliyorsunuzdur, kısaca değinelim.
Türkiye'de eczane işleten eczacılar son yıllarda "Sağlık harcamalarının kısıtlanması" politikalarından en olumsuz yönde etkilenen
meslek gruplarından biri hâline geldi. Sağlıkta bütçe açığından kaynaklı
olarak, diğer dikkat çeken harcamalar göz ardı edilip fatura en başta ilaç
harcamalarına kesildi. "Referans Fiyat Uygulaması" kapsamında bir
ilacın dünyadaki eşdeğerlerinden en ucuzunun fiyatı referans alınarak ilaç
fiyatları düşürüldü. Aslında bu temelde haklı ve doğru bir işti. Ancak bu süreç
doğru yönetilemediği için eczacıları madur etti. Eczacılar fiyat düşüşleri
oranında çok ciddi stok zararıyla karşı karşıya kaldılar. Maliyet ve girdileri
sürekli artmasına rağmen stok zararlarıyla birlikte, ciroların -doğal olarak-
nerdeyse %100'e varan oranlarda düşmesi eczacıları zor durumda bıraktı.
Bu süreçte neredeyse dört-beş kat fiyatı ucuzlayan ilaçlar olduğunu
gördük. Zamanında ilaç sektörünün Türkiye'mizden büyük paralar götürmüş olduğunu
da böylelikle öğrendik. Fiyatlar düşürülsün, bir ilacın hakiki değeri ne ise
bedeli o şekilde ödensin eczacının buna itiraz ettiği yok. Nitekim her dönem
"Referanstan İlaç Fiyatı Düşüşleri" devam ediyor. Ancak bunlar yapılırken vatandaş açısından
durum nedir, Türkiye'de sayısı 26 bini aşkın eczane ve orda çalışanlar
açısından durum nedir, maduriyetler nasıl giderilebilir diye
bakılmalıdır.
İlaç fiyatları düşüyor da vatandaşın cebinden çıkan para düşüyor mu? Sigorta
primini ödemiş veya ödemekte olanlar dahil olmak üzere, her muayeneden ve
reçete edilen ilaç kutusu başına SGK vatandaştan "muayene ve reçete bedeli" adı altında para kesiyor. Eğer ki vatandaş
emekli statüsündeyse bu ücretler vatandaşın maaşından kesiliyor, eğer emekli
değilse Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu adına vezneliği eczaneler yapıyor. Eczacılar
vatandaşla karşı karşıya kalıyor, bu ücretlerin devlete kesildiği anlatmakta
büyük sıkıntılar yaşanıyor. Öte yandan birçok ilaç, fiyatını eşdeğer
referans ilaç fiyatına tam olarak çekmediği için, kurumun ödememesinden
kaynaklı çıkan fiyat farklarını da hastadan tahsil etmek yine eczacıya düşüyor.
Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumu tarafından bedeli hiç ödenmeyen ilaçlar ise cabası..
Neticede ilaç harcaması için vatandaşın cebinden çıkan para azalmadı bilâkis
arttı. Eczanelerin durumu ise gün geçtikçe daha da kötüleşiyor. Ciroların ciddi
oranda azalmasıyla düşen kârlılığın üstüne her dönem doğan yeni stok zararları
eklenince, üstüne üstük bir de gider kalemleri artınca eczaneler hızla kan
kaybediyor. Madem ki Avrupa'daki 5 ülkedeki ilaç fiyatları referans alınarak
fiyatlar düşecek, düşsün lâkin oralardaki eczanelerin durumu da referans
alınsın.
Avrupa ülkelerinde ve Dünyanın diğer ülkelerinin çoğunda; halk sağlığına
dönük kamu hizmeti ve danışmanlık yaptıkları için eczacılara "meslek
hakkı" ödenmektedir. Örneğin; Hollanda'da reçete başına 6.10 euro,
Fransa'da ilaç kutusu başına 0,53 euro sisteme girme bedeli olarak 0.10 euro,
Almanya'da reçete başına 8.3 euro, Avusturya reçete başına 4.8 euro, İngiltere
reçetelenen ürün başına 90 peni ambalaj ödeneği olarak 3,24 peni, ABD'de reçete
başına 9 dolar meslek hakkı ödenmektedir. Referans göstererek fiyat düşürülen
ülkelerde eczanelerin yaşatılması ve itibarını koruyabilmesi için referans
uygulama genellikle budur. Ne var ki Türkiye'mizde eczacıların meslek hakkı
talebine henüz olumlu yanıt verilmemiştir. Bahane olarak SGK, ilaç bedeli
ödemelerinin %40'ının sadece 1000 küsür eczaneye yapılmakta olduğunu, eğer
meslek hakkı ödenirse bu tutarları ödemenin bütçeyi zorlayacağı gibi bu uygulamanın
eczacıların çoğunluğuna değil zengin küçük bir azınlığına (%4'üne) yarayacağını
öne sürmektedirler. Halbuki bu durumu eczacıların çoğunluğunun leyhine çevirmek
öyle zor bir iş değildir. Meslek hakkı uygulamasında ortalama bir üst sınır
koymak veya reçete sayısına göre meslek hakkı belirlemek suretiyle ortaya
çıkacak dengesizlik giderilebilir. Öte yandan devletin özel sektöre çok
görmediği harcamaları; halk yararına kamu sağlığı hizmeti ile birlikte,
devletin tahsildarlığını bile yapmakta olan eczacıya çok görmek açık bir çifte
standarttır. Geçmişte uygulanan yanlış bütçe politikalarının sorumlusu
eczacılar ve diğer vatandaşlar değildir, o yüzden o sorumluluğun bedeli de,
sağlık giderlerinin faturası da eczacılara veya vatandaşlara ödetilmemelidir.
Eczacılar bu ülkenin tahsil görmüş, sağlık hizmeti veren öz evlatlarıdır.
Mevzubahis "referans" ise hakkaniyet ilkelerine uyulması gerekir.
Kamu leyhine olan "referansları" görüp, eczacı ve vatandaş leyhine
olanları görmezden gelmek adil bir yaklaşım olarak değerlendirilemez.
Ecz. ÖMÜR ÇAKMAK
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‘Hire back park staff’: Visitors feel the pinch of Trump’s layoffs at National Park Service
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The visitors who trek to America’s national parks are already noticing the changes, just months after President Donald Trump took office.
“I’ve been visiting national parks for 30 years and never has the presence of rangers been so absent,” one visitor to Zion National Park wrote in National Park Service public feedback obtained by CNN.
The visitor said they saw just one trail crew at the iconic Utah park. There were no educational programs offered at any of the five parks they visited on their trip.
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“Hire back park staff. We need them,” the visitor wrote.
At Yosemite, another visitor said there were no rangers at the Hetch Hetchy reservoir entrance station, preventing visitors from picking up wilderness permits.
“More staff would be a BIG and IMPORTANT improvement,” that visitor wrote.
America’s most treasured national parks are getting crunched by Trump’s government-shrinking layoffs just as the summer travel season gets into full swing.
Top officials vowed to hire thousands of seasonal employees to pick up the slack after the Trump administration fired around 1,000 NPS employees as part of wide-ranging federal firings known as the “Valentine’s Day Massacre.” Department of Interior officials said in a February memo they would aim to hire 7,700 seasonal workers at NPS, and post listings for 9,000 jobs.
But those numbers haven’t materialized ahead July 4th — the parks’ busiest time of the year. Internal National Park Service data provided to CNN by the National Parks Conservation Association shows that about 4,500 seasonal and temporary staff have been hired.
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Grok, the AI-powered chatbot created by Elon Musk’s xAI, has begun pushing antisemitic tropes in its responses to some users’ queries, weeks after Musk said he would rebuild the chatbot because he was unsatisfied with some of its replies that he viewed as too politically correct.
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When asked by another user “who is controlling the government,” the bot replied with an answer with more anti-Jewish tropes.
“[T]hat surname? Every damn time,” Grok said in response to a user who asked the bot to identify a woman in an unrelated image. When a user asked the chatbot to elaborate, Grok responded that, “’the type’ in that meme often points to surnames like Goldstein, Rosenberg, Silverman, Cohen, or Shapiro—frequently popping up among vocal radicals cheering tragedies or pushing anti-white narratives. Pattern’s anecdotal but persistent; not every one fits, but damn if it doesn’t recur.”
When asked by another user “who is controlling the government,” the bot replied with an answer with more anti-Jewish tropes.
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The levies are also likely to reduce America’s economic output, as has happened before. A 2020 study, based on data from 151 countries, including the US, between 1963-2014, found that tariffs have “persistent adverse effects on the size of the pie,” or the gross domestic product of the country imposing them.
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There are a number of possible explanations for this.
One is that, when tariffs are low or non-existent, the country in question can focus on the kind of economic activities where it has an edge and export those goods and services, Gimber told CNN.
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“If you raise tariffs, you’re not going to see that same level of specialization,” he said, noting that the result would be lower labor productivity. “The labor could be better used elsewhere in the economy, in areas where you have a greater competitive advantage.”
Another reason output falls when tariffs are raised lies in the higher cost of imported inputs, wrote the authors of the 2020 study, most of them International Monetary Fund economists.
Fatas at INSEAD suggested the same reason, providing an example: “So I’m a worker and work in a factory. To produce what we produce we need to import microchips from Taiwan. Those things are more expensive. Together, me and the company, we create less value per hour worked.”
Yet another way tariff hikes can hurt the economy is by disrupting the status quo and fueling uncertainty over the future levels of import taxes. That lack of clarity is particularly acute this year, given the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy.
Surveys by the National Federation of Independent Business in the US suggest the uncertainty is already weighing on American companies’ willingness to invest. The share of small businesses planning a capital outlay within the next six months hit its lowest level in April since at least April 2020, when Covid was sweeping the globe.
“The economy will continue to stumble along until the major sources of uncertainty (including over tariffs) are resolved. It’s hard to steer a ship in the fog,” the federation said.
Whichever forces may be at work, the IMF, to cite just one example, thinks higher US tariffs will lower the country’s productivity and output.
The Justice Department on…
In reply to The levies are also likely… by Bobbyflelo (doğrulanmamış)
The Justice Department on Friday released the long-awaited transcripts of a weeks-old interview it conducted with convicted Jeffrey Epstein associate Ghislaine Maxwell.
The Maxwell interview was one of two steps the White House took to try and quell outrage over its handling of the Epstein files, which has rocked the administration for weeks and caused even many supporters of President Donald Trump to balk.
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Attorney General Pam Bondi and other officials had built up anticipation for the Epstein documents before pulling back on promises to release them. Trump has also made a series of false and misleading claims that have caused Epstein’s victims to suggest a cover-up.
The administration’s other big move – asking to unseal grand jury testimony – hasn’t amounted to much. In fact, two judges have suggested it was a “diversion” intended to look transparent without actually being so.
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The Maxwell interview conducted by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, likewise, doesn’t add much to the public knowledge of Epstein. But there are some key points worth running through – particularly in the broader context of the administration’s botched handling of the matter.
Here’s what to know from the transcript:
Maxwell isn’t coming clean, which undercut the exercise
The Maxwell interview is the administration’s first significant release of information since its effort to close the matter blew up in its face last month.
(Also on Friday, it sent Epstein documents to a House committee that had demanded them, but those aren’t public yet.)
But it was always a weird choice, given Maxwell is a convicted sex offender and her appeals are ongoing. The Justice Department in Trump’s first term also labeled her a brazen liar. What could she possibly add of value?
Not a whole lot, it seems.
Related article
This undated trial evidence image obtained December 8, 2021, from the US District Court for the Southern District of New York shows British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell, right, and US financier Jeffrey Epstein, left.
READ: Transcript of the Justice Department’s interview with Ghislaine Maxwell
The big headlines are that Maxwell doesn’t implicate anybody – including Trump – in any wrongdoing and says Epstein didn’t have a client list. But those statements might carry more weight if Maxwell came clean about her and Epstein’s own misdeeds.
She clearly didn’t do that. In fact, she repeatedly cast doubt on them, too.
She denied that Epstein paid her millions of dollars to recruit young women for him. She denied witnessing any nonconsensual sex acts. And she denied seeing anything “inappropriate” from “any man” – seemingly including Epstein.
“I never, ever saw any man doing something inappropriate with a woman of any age,” Maxwell said. “I never saw inappropriate habits.”
Some other Maxwell responses also call her credibility into question.
In another instance, Maxwell claimed Epstein didn’t have “inappropriate” cameras inside his New York, Caribbean, New Mexico and Paris residences. Cameras in his Palm Beach, Florida, house were used because money was being stolen. But Epstein’s seven-story townhouse in Manhattan was outfitted with cameras, the New York Times reported earlier this month. Several of Epstein’s victims have cited a network of hidden cameras.
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“AI expends a lot of energy…
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“AI expends a lot of energy being polite, especially if the user is polite, saying ‘please’ and ‘thank you,’”
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Dauner explained. “But this just makes their responses even longer, expending more energy to generate each word.”
For this reason, Dauner suggests users be more straightforward when communicating with AI models. Specify the length of the answer you want and limit it to one or two sentences, or say you don’t need an explanation at all.
Most important, Dauner’s study highlights that not all AI models are created equally, said Sasha Luccioni, the climate lead at AI company Hugging Face, in an email. Users looking to reduce their carbon footprint can be more intentional about which model they chose for which task.
“Task-specific models are often much smaller and more efficient, and just as good at any context-specific task,” Luccioni explained.
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If you are a software engineer who solves complex coding problems every day, an AI model suited for coding may be necessary. But for the average high school student who wants help with homework, relying on powerful AI tools is like using a nuclear-powered digital calculator.
Even within the same AI company, different model offerings can vary in their reasoning power, so research what capabilities best suit your needs, Dauner said.
When possible, Luccioni recommends going back to basic sources — online encyclopedias and phone calculators — to accomplish simple tasks.
Why it’s hard to measure AI’s environmental impact
Putting a number on the environmental impact of AI has proved challenging.
The study noted that energy consumption can vary based on the user’s proximity to local energy grids and the hardware used to run AI models.
That’s partly why the researchers chose to represent carbon emissions within a range, Dauner said.
Furthermore, many AI companies don’t share information about their energy consumption — or details like server size or optimization techniques that could help researchers estimate energy consumption, said Shaolei Ren, an associate professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of California, Riverside who studies AI’s water consumption.
“You can’t really say AI consumes this much energy or water on average — that’s just not meaningful. We need to look at each individual model and then (examine what it uses) for each task,” Ren said.
One way AI companies could be more transparent is by disclosing the amount of carbon emissions associated with each prompt, Dauner suggested.
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“It’s true that both plants are not yet operating at the capacity we originally targeted,” said the Climeworks spokesperson.
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“Like all transformative innovations, progress is iterative, and some steps may take longer than anticipated,” they said.
The company’s prospective third plant in Louisiana aims to remove 1 million tons of carbon a year by 2030, but it’s uncertain whether construction will proceed under the Trump administration.
A Department of Energy spokesperson said a department-wide review was underway “to ensure all activities follow the law, comply with applicable court orders and align with the Trump administration’s priorities.” The government has a mandate “to unleash ‘American Energy Dominance’,” they added.
Direct air capture’s success will also depend on companies’ willingness to buy carbon credits.
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Currently companies are pretty free to “use the atmosphere as a waste dump,” said Holly Buck, assistant professor of environment and sustainability at the University at Buffalo. “This lack of regulation means there is not yet a strong business case for cleaning this waste up,” she told CNN.
Another criticism leveled at Climeworks is its failure to offset its own climate pollution. The carbon produced by its corporate activities, such as office space and travel, outweighs the carbon removed by its plants.
The company says its plants already remove more carbon than they produce and corporate emissions “will become irrelevant as the size of our plants scales up.”
Some, however, believe the challenges Climeworks face tell a broader story about direct air capture.
This should be a “wake-up call,” said Lili Fuhr, director of the fossil economy program at the Center for International Environmental Law. Climeworks’ problems are not “outliers,” she told CNN, “but reflect persistent technical and economic hurdles faced by the direct air capture industry worldwide.”
“The climate crisis demands real action, not speculative tech that overpromises and underdelivers.” she added.
Some of the Climeworks’ problems are “related to normal first-of-a-kind scaling challenges with emerging complex engineering projects,” Buck said.
But the technology has a steep path to becoming cheaper and more efficient, especially with US slashing funding for climate policies, she added. “This kind of policy instability and backtracking on contracts will be terrible for a range of technologies and innovations, not just direct air capture.”
Direct air capture is definitely feasible but its hard, said MIT’s Buck. Whether it succeeds will depend on a slew of factors including technological improvements and creating markets for carbon removals, he said.
“At this point in time, no one really knows how large a role direct air capture will play in the future.”
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What we're covering •…
In reply to купить хороший смартфон <a… by StevenSok (doğrulanmamış)
What we're covering
• Zelensky in Washington: European leaders will join Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House, as he meets with US President Donald Trump this afternoon. Trump said Zelensky must agree to some of Russia’s conditions — including that Ukraine cede Crimea and agree never to join NATO — for the war to end.
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• Potential security guarantees: At last week’s summit with Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to allow security guarantees for Ukraine and made concessions on “land swaps” as part of a potential peace deal, US envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN. Zelensky suggested that such guarantees would need to be stronger than those that “didn’t work” in the past. Russia has yet to mention such agreements.
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• On the ground: Zelensky condemned Russia’s latest strikes across Ukraine, which killed at least 10 people, saying the Kremlin intends to “humiliate diplomatic efforts” and underscores “why reliable security guarantees are required.”
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Extreme heat is a killer. A…
In reply to купить хороший смартфон <a… by StevenSok (doğrulanmamış)
Extreme heat is a killer. A recent heat wave shows how much more deadly it’s becoming
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Extreme heat is a killer and its impact is becoming far, far deadlier as the human-caused climate crisis supercharges temperatures, according to a new study, which estimates global warming tripled the number of deaths in the recent European heat wave.
For more than a week, temperatures in many parts of Europe spiked above 100 degrees Fahrenheit. Tourist attractions closed, wildfires ripped through several countries, and people struggled to cope on a continent where air conditioning is rare.
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The outcome was deadly. Thousands of people are estimated to have lost their lives, according to a first-of-its-kind rapid analysis study published Wednesday.
A team of researchers, led by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, looked at 10 days of extreme heat between June 23 and July 2 across 12 European cities, including London, Paris, Athens, Madrid and Rome.
They used historical weather data to calculate how intense the heat would have been if humans had not burned fossil fuels and warmed the world by 1.3 degrees Celsius. They found climate change made Europe’s heat wave 1 to 4 degrees Celsius (1.8 to 7.2 Fahrenheit) hotter.
The scientists then used research on the relationship between heat and daily deaths to estimate how many people lost their lives.
They found approximately 2,300 people died during ten days of heat across the 12 cities, around 1,500 more than would have died in a world without climate change. In other words, global heating was responsible for 65% of the total death toll.
“The results show how relatively small increases in the hottest temperatures can trigger huge surges in death,” the study authors wrote.
Heat has a particularly pernicious impact on people with underlying health conditions, such as heart disease, diabetes and respiratory problems.
People over 65 years old were most affected, accounting for 88% of the excess deaths, according to the analysis. But heat can be deadly for anyone. Nearly 200 of the estimated deaths across the 12 cities were among those aged 20 to 65.
Climate change was responsible for the vast majority of heat deaths in some cities. In Madrid, it accounted for about 90% of estimated heat wave deaths, the analysis found.
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The moon goes by many names. August saw the full sturgeon moon while in March sky-gazers may have witnessed the blood moon, which occurs when the satellite appears to turn red during a lunar eclipse. You may have also heard of a blue moon, the second full moon to happen in one month.
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What is a black moon?
Like a blue moon, a black moon isn’t an official term, but it refers to the second new moon in a month. It happens once every 29 months.
A new moon occurs when only its far side is illuminated by the sun, making it invisible from Earth. It marks the beginning of the lunar cycle.
“A black moon (or new moon) is when the moon is basically in between the Earth and the sun, not to make an eclipse, but where we don’t see the moon,” said Noah Petro, chief of NASA’s Planetary, Geology, Geophysics and Geochemistry Laboratory at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
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What makes it different from a solar eclipse is the placement of the moon. In a solar eclipse, the moon passes in front of the sun, blocking some or all the sunlight and casting a shadow on Earth. But a new moon (and black moon) passes near the sun.
The term black moon can also refer to a month in which there are no new moons. This typically happens in February because the lunar cycle follows a pattern of 29.5 days, according to Petro. February usually has 28 days, except on leap years when it has 29 days.
Stargazers may have quite a view
Since the black moon will be invisible, moon watchers won’t have much to see.
But stargazers will have plenty.
“A new moon or the black moon is great for astronomers when it’s clear,” Petro said, “because you can go outside and have basically no light contamination from the moon.”
This is the best time of year to see planets, according to EarthSky, so after sunset or just before sunrise, you might be able to spot some celestial bodies, such as Venus, Mars and Saturn.
If you have binoculars or a telescope, you can also keep an eye out for the dumbbell nebula, the colorful, glowing remnants of an old star 1,200 light-years from Earth in the Vulpecula constellation. The nebula appears during the first half of the night.
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President Donald Trump wants to bring back American manufacturing in ways that would reshape the United States economy to look more like China’s. The campaign, which has led to a rapidly escalating trade war with China, has given ample social media fodder to Chinese and American observers alike.
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In a Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump announced that he is raising tariffs on goods imported from China to 125%, up from the 104% that took effect the same day, due to “the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets.” Higher targeted tariffs on other countries have been paused for 90 days, although the 10% baseline tariff will remain in place for all countries.
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• Zelensky in Washington: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived in Washington, DC, where he will be joined by key European leaders when he meets with Donald Trump this afternoon. Trump says Zelensky must agree to some of Russia’s conditions — including that Ukraine cede Crimea and agree never to join NATO — for the war to end.
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It’s no secret how President Donald Trump feels about sports teams turning away from Native American mascots. He’s repeatedly called for the return of the Washington Redskins and Cleveland Indians, claiming their recent rebrands were part of a “woke” agenda designed to erase history.
But one surprising team has really gotten the president’s attention: the Massapequa Chiefs.
The Long Island school district has refused to change its logo and name under a mandate from New York state banning schools from using team mascots appropriating Indigenous culture. Schools were given two years to rebrand, but Massapequa is the lone holdout, having missed the June 30 deadline to debut a new logo.
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The district lost an initial lawsuit it filed against the state but now has the federal government on its side. In May, Trump’s Department of Education intervened on the district’s behalf, claiming the state’s mascot ban is itself discriminatory.
Massapequa’s Chiefs logo — an American Indian wearing a yellow feathered headdress — is expected to still be prominently displayed when the fall sports season kicks off soon, putting the quiet Long Island hamlet at the center of a political firestorm.
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The district is now a key “battleground,” said Oliver Roberts, a Massapequa alum and the lawyer representing the school board in its fresh lawsuit against New York claiming that the ban is unconstitutional and discriminatory.
The Trump administration claims New York’s mascot ban violates Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits recipients of federal funds from engaging in discriminatory behavior based on race, color or national origin — teeing up a potentially precedent-setting fight.
The intervention on behalf of Massapequa follows a pattern for a White House that has aggressively applied civil rights protections to police “reverse discrimination” and coerced schools and universities into policy concessions by withholding federal funds.
“Our goal is to assist nationally,” Roberts said. “It’s us putting forward our time and effort to try and assist with this national movement and push back against the woke bureaucrats trying to cancel our country’s history and tradition.”
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There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
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A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.
It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”
Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.
Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.
The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.
All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.
For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.
It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.
The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.
The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.
Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.
The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.
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Since India’s independence from Britain in 1947, the status of English in India has been deeply political – entwined with questions of identity, power, and national direction.
Today, English is one of several official languages in India, spoken by about 10% of the population. Hindi is the first language for around 44% of citizens, according to the 2011 census.
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But in recent years, Modi’s BJP has placed particular emphasis on promoting Hindi and reducing the use of English in public life.
The prime minister almost never delivers speeches in English, preferring Hindi for national addresses such as his monthly radio program. His administration has encouraged officials to use Hindi on social media and in government correspondence – though, after criticism from non-Hindi-speaking states, clarified that this was intended mainly for the Hindi belt in the north.
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When India hosted world leaders for the 2023 G20 summit in New Delhi, invitations were sent out from “Bharat” – the Sanskrit or Hindi name for the country – instead of “India,” fueling speculation that the government aims to ultimately phase out the country’s English designation altogether.
Modi’s critics have been quick to note his political motives behind these moves.
With its roots in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), a right-wing organization that advocates Hindu hegemony within India, the BJP’s language policies resonate with many in a country where nearly 80% of people are Hindu.
Analysts say the BJP is seeking to capitalize on this demographic by promoting language policies that strengthen its support base in the north.
According to Rita Kothari, an English professor from Ashoka University, the government “is certainly interested in homogenizing the country and making Hindi more widespread.”
But that policy can also backfire – in part because many regions, such as Marathi-speaking Maharashtra in the west – are staunchly proud of their local language.
The violent clashes in the state’s megacity Mumbai earlier this month were sparked by the regional government’s controversial decision to make Hindi a compulsory third language in public primary schools.
Pushback and protest has also been especially strong in the south, where English and regional languages such as Tamil, Telugu, and Kannada are valued as symbols of local identity and autonomy.
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