Kâr maksimizasyonu düşük olan aşılar üretilmiyor mu?

Yeterince Çok ve Yeterince Çeşitli Aşı Üretemiyoruz; Çünkü Firmalar Kâr Edemeyecekleri Aşıları Üretmiyorlar!

Daha önceden aşıların neden önemli olduğunu, aşıların hayatımızı nasıl kökünden değiştirdiğini ve aşı karşıtlığının neden baştan sona hatalı argümanlarla bezeli olduğunu ve ciddiye alınmaması gerektiğini tüm detaylarıyla izah etmiştik. Aşılar, modern tıbbın en büyük zaferlerinden ve hastalıklarla mücadele yönündeki alet çantamızın en önemli parçalarından birisidir. Buna yönelik en ufak bir şüphe kırıntısı dâhi bulunmuyor.

Ancak gerçekten de aşılarla ilgili bir sorunumuz var: Aşıları yeterince hızlı ve çeşitli üretemiyoruz. 2011 yılında The Lancet'te yayınlanan bir makale, bunun nedenlerini şöyle sıralıyor:

Bunu şu anki nedenleri kısmen yatırım maliyeti nedeniyle lisansın ilk yıllarında küresel talebi karşılamak için nadiren yeterli olan üretim kapasiteleridir; kısmense Ar-Ge yatırımını telafi etmek isteyen şirketlerin (yeni bir aşının üretim maliyetleri 1 milyar Amerikan doları civarındadır) yüksek bir fiyatı sürdürebilen pazarlara arz önceliği vermesidir. Bu nedenle de, eğer özel bir satın alma ve tedarik anlaşması yoksa, yeni aşılar çoğu zaman birçok ülkeye uzun süreler boyunca ulaşamaz veya ulaşsa da uygun fiyata elde edilemez.

Yani aşı karşıtlarının hatası şurada: Aşıların işlevsiz olduğuna veya insanları bilerek hasta etmeye yönelik üretildiğine inanan (daha doğrusu bu tarz bir inanca "iman eden") aşı karşıtları, bu sözde "işlevsiz" ve "zararlı" aşıları üreten firmaların insanları önce bu aşılarla hasta edip, sonra tedavi ederek kâr maksimizasyonu sağladıklarını iddia ediyorlar. Bu tamamen uyduruk bir komplo teorisinden ibaret; geçerli hiçbir tarafı bulunmuyor. Tabii aşı karşıtlarının yücelttiği alternatif tıbbın da, modern tıp kadar kârlı bir müessese olduğu ve aşı karşıtlığının çok daha az sayıda aktör tarafından yönetildiği gibi gerçekler de işin cabası!

Gerçekte olan ise şu: Aşılar tamamen faydalı ve insan hastalıklarını önleme gücüne sahip; ancak bu aşılar arasından sadece en fazla kâr elde edilebilenler yaygın olarak üretiliyor, onlara yönelik araştırmalar fonlanıyor. Öte yandan halk sağlığını geliştirme potansiyeli olan sayısız aşıya yeterli kaynak ayrılmıyor, bunlar ya hiç üretilmiyor ya çok kısıtlı bir şekilde üretiliyor. İşte halk sağlığını tehdit eden nokta da bu: Aşıların kendisi tehdit unsuru değil; az ve sınırlı çeşitte üretiliyor olması tehdit unsuru!

Aşıların kâr amacı/maksimizasyonu güden firmalarca üretildiği doğru; zaten modern ekonomide bir "firma"nın tanımı budur. Eğer ki devlet veya kâr amacı gütmeyen sivil toplum kuruluşları aşı üretimine başlamayacaksa, en nihayetinde kâr amacı gütmek işin bir parçası olacak. Bunun yarattığı asıl sorun şu: Aşılara yönelik bilimsel çalışmalar saf meraktan veya insanlığı/bilimi ilerletmek için yapılsa da, bu araştırmaların öncelikle düzgün bir şekilde fonlanması gerekiyor, sonrasındaysa geliştirilen yeni aşıların milyonlarca üretilmesi ve Dünya'nın dört bir yanına ulaştırılması gerekiyor. Aşı dediğimiz şey en nihayetinde her şey gibi kimyasal bir madde olduğundan, belli bir raf ömrüne sahip oluyor. Dolayısıyla bu aşıların düzenli olarak üretilmesi, yeni evrimsel değişimler sonrası yeniden elden geçirilmesi ve sil baştan üretilmesi gerekiyor. Sonra tekrar dağıtılması gerekiyor ve bu döngü durmaksızın devam ediyor.

Her bir virüs için. Her bir ülke için. Her yıl, durmaksızın...

Bu, tek (veya en azından ana) amacı kârlarını arttırmak olan firmaların yapmayı tercih ettikleri bir yatırım değil. Örneğin az sonra detaylarını göreceğimiz gibi, Ebola virüsünün keşfinden sonra üretilen ve Batı Afrika Ebola Salgını'na karşı kullanılabilecek bir aşı, herhangi bir maddi gelir sağlamadığı için yıllarca bir kenara atıldı, üretilmedi. Aşı, hastalığa karşı %100 koruma sağlıyordu ve aslında 2010-2011 yılına hazır edilebilirdi; ama edilmedi. Bu nedenle de 2013'te başlayıp, 2016'ya kadar süren salgının önüne geçilemedi; çünkü insanlar üzerinde yapılması gereken deneyler vakitlice yapılmamıştı. Bu basit hata, 11.000'den fazla insanın canından olmasına neden oldu.

2019-nCoV salgınında hazırlıksız yakalanmamızın nedenlerinden birisi de bu: SARS Salgını ve Zaire/Kongo Ebola Salgını gibi salgınlar bize aşıların önemini tekrar hatırlattı; ancak bu salgınları kontrol altına aldığımız anda, bu alandaki önlem-amaçlı aşı üretim araştırmalarını yine unutuverdik. Çünkü risk algımız son derece çarpık, son derece sınırlı: Sadece "o anda" tehlikeli olan şeylere odaklanıyoruz. "Gelecekteki potansiyel tehditleri" umursamak konusunda kitlesel olarak bir atalete sahibiz.

Bu, berbat bir strateji, çünkü acil ihtiyaç olduğunda sadece canları kaybetmekle kalmıyoruz; aynı zamanda maddi olarak da etkileniyoruz. Örneğin Ebola salgını o kadar hızlı ve tehlikeli bir yumruk attı ki, tıpkı 2019-nCoV salgını sırasında firmaların birden aşı ve ilaç yarışına girmesi gibi, Ebola virüsüne karşı aşı için de çılgın bir "arayış" başladı (evet, çözüm burnumuzun dibinde bekliyor olmasına rağmen!). Sadece ABD hükümeti bile süreci hızlandırmak için 1 milyar dolardan fazla para harcadı ve sonrasında da ek harcamalara devam etmek zorunda kaldı.

Virüsler Her Yerde!

Memeli hayvanlara bulaştığı bilinen en az 320.000 farklı virüs tipi bulunuyor ve bunların bazıları (200'den fazlası) memeli bir hayvan türü olan insana halihazırda bulaşıyor, geri kalan yüz binlercesi de evrimsel süreç dolayısıyla insana bulaşabilir hale gelmeye aday olan virüsler. HIV bize maymunlardan bulaştı, SARS misk kedilerinden, MERS tek hörgüçlü develerden... Zoonotik bulaşma, insan-harici bir hayvan türünden insana bulaşma anlamına geliyor ve yeni hastalıkların evriminde büyük bir risk teşkil ediyor. Tabii diğer hayvanlara gerek olmadan, insandan insana bulaşabilen yüzlerce farklı virüs bulunuyor. Dahası, virüslerin bakterileriden yüzlerce kat daha fazla sayıya sahip olduğu düşünülüyor.

İnsanları enfekte eden virüslerin bir kısmı
İnsanları enfekte eden virüslerin bir kısmı

Buna karşılık, Dünya Sağlık Örgütü verilerine göre toplamda sadece 26 hastalığa yönelik geliştirilmiş 59 farklı çeşitte aşımız var. Bunlardan ortalamada sadece 14 tanesi rutin olarak uygulanıyor; Sağlık Bakanlığı verilerine göre Türkiye'de 10 hastalığa karşı aşılama yapılıyor.

Aşılar, hastalığa yakalanmamak için bir duvar görevi görüyor; ancak aşılanmama halinde hastalığa yakalanılacak olursa da modern tıbbın sizi iyileştirmek için kullanabileceği bazı silahları mevcut: Bu virüsleri bulaştıkları zaman tedavi etmek için antiviral ilaçlar kullanabiliyoruz. Genel olarak viral hastalıklar iki şekilde tedavi edilebiliyor: Virüslerin üremekte kullandığı proteinlerine engel olan moleküller kullanmak veya antijenler kullanarak virüsleri yok etmek. Bu yöntemlerden ilki, eğer çalışırsa, tedavi açısından çok etkili olsa da, ne yazık ki bu amaçla üretilmeye çalışılan ilaçların %99'u başarısız oluyor. Bu nedenle araştırmalar, antijen üretimine odaklanıyor. Sağlıklı bir insanın doğal yollarla antijen üretmesi 2 haftayı bulabiliyor - ki bu, çoğu durumda salgınların yayılması için yeterli bir süre.

Dolayısıyla virüsleri bulaştıktan sonra tedavi etmek oldukça zorlu ve masraflı bir iş. Üstelik virüslerin çoğu durumda aşırı hızlı bir şekilde evrimsel değişim geçirmeleri de büyük bir problem. Tıpkı bakterilerin antibiyotik direnci kazanması gibi, virüsler de antiviral direnci kazanabiliyorlar.

Ön Hazırlık, Milyonlarca Hayatı Kurtarabilir!

Yeni bir hastalığa yönelik aşı geliştirmek için, elbette o hastalığa neden olan virüsü tespit etmemiz gerekiyor. Dolayısıyla aşıları kitlesel olarak üretsek bile belli bir zaman alması kaçınılmaz olacak. Ancak yeni aşıların üretilmesi için gereken süreler aşırı yüksek ve kabul edilebilir düzeylerde değiller. Örneğin 2014 yılındaki Batı Afrika Ebola salgını için Kanada Toplum Sağlığı Ajansı tarafından üretilen (ve sonradan Merck firması tarafından hakları satın alınan) Ervebo (rVSV-ZEBOV) isimli aşı, tarihte en hızlı üretilen aşılardan birisiydi. Ancak buna rağmen geçerli bir tedavi olarak onaylanması 5 yıl sürdü!

5 yıl o kadar uzun bir süre ki, aşı resmi olarak onaylanana kadar, 2018 yılında Kongo'da ve Zaire'de yeni bir ebola salgını başladı. Ancak henüz resmi onaylar alınmamışsa bile Ervebo, Kongo'da kullanıldı (buna "merhametli kullanım protokolü" adı veriliyor) ve salgının kontrol altında tutulmasında büyük bir rol oynadı. Yani bir hastalığın türevlerine karşı hazırlıklı olduğumuz müddetçe, yeni bir evrimsel varyant karşımıza çıktığında çok daha hızlı tepki verebiliyoruz. Öyle ki, 2019-nCoV salgını sırasında "çözüm" olmaya en büyük aday olan ilaç etken maddelerinden ikisi, halihazırda tanıdığımız diğer hastalıklara (örneğin oto-immün hastalıklara) karşı kullandığımız ilaçlardı.

Yani ön-hazırlık her şeydir! Bunu şöyle görebilirsiniz: Ebola virüsü yeni bir virüs değil; 1976 yılından beri tanıyorduk. Ama eğer bu virüse karşı zamanında önlemimizi alsaydık, Batı Afrika Ebola Salgını sırasında 28.464 vakadan 11.323'ünü (tüm vakaların yaklaşık %40'ını) kaybetmeyebilirdik! Tarih boyu Ebola salgınlarının öldürücülük oranı %25 ila %90 arasında değişmesine rağmen, gerekli önlemleri almadık. Kıyas olması bakımından, 2019-nCoV'un öldürücülük oranı sadece %2-3 civarında. MERS gibi ölümcül bir kuzeninin bile öldürücülük oranı %35-40 arasıydı.

Buna rağmen, aşının etkisi barizdi: Batı Afrika Ebola Salgını'ndaki 11.000 küsür ölüme karşılık, 2018'den bu yana devam eden Kongo ve Zaire'deki salgınlarda hastalık sadece 62 kişiye bulaşabildi ve sadece 37 kişi öldü. Bu, halen muazzam bir öldürücülük oranı; ancak hastalığın salgına dönüşemiyor oluşu, salgına karşı ön hazırlığın ne denli önemli olduğunu gösteriyor.

Çözüm Ne?

Bu hayati soruna sosyolojik, ekonomik ve politik birçok çözüm önerisi ileri sürülebilir. Ancak British Medical Journaliçin yazan Seth Berkley şöyle diyor:

Yenilikçi bir şekilde uyarlanabilir deneme tasarımları geliştirebilirsek, yeni aşıların denenme hızını artırabiliriz. Bu, aşının işe yarayıp yaramadığına dair bir cevap alma hızımızı artıracaktır, ancak yine de önemli ölçüde zaman gerektirir. Kullanılabilirliği hızlandırmanın daha iyi bir yolu, önceden deneme yapmaktır. Aşı platform teknolojileri bunu daha modüler bir yaklaşımla yapma potansiyeline sahiptir. Bunlar, belirli bir hastalık sınıfı için bir dizi farklı antijen taşıyabilen tek bir ortak moleküler platforma sahip olmayı içerir. Güvenlik denemelerinin çoğunu bu platformda ihtiyaç duyulmadan önce gerçekleştirip (yani bir araca binmeden önce "lastiklerini tekmeleme yoluyla" onu kontrol etmeniz gibi), daha sonra bir salgın meydana geldiğinde bu platforma yeni bir antijen eklersek, acil bir durumda yeni aşı üretim hızını dikkate değer miktarda arttırabiliriz.

Bunu aslında yapıyoruz: Sezonluk influenza (grip) aşısını düşünün. Bu virüs aşırı hızlı evrimleşiyor ve çok sayıda alt türü bulunuyor; dolayısıyla gribe karşı Dünya'nın "en etkili" aşısını üretmek imkansıza yakın. Böylesine zorlu bir rakibe rağmen grip aşısı her yıl on binlerce insanın hayatını kurtaracak kadar etkilidir. Bu gücü ona veren şey, yeni sezonda en aktif olan grip virüslerini tespit edip, onlara yönelik aşılarının üretiminin önceden yapılmasıdır.

İşte kritik nokta da bu: Bunu yapabiliyoruz; çünkü grip virüslerini artık çok iyi tanıyoruz. Dahası, grip virüsü o kadar geniş kitleleri hastalandırıyor ki, firmalar için grip aşılarına yatırım yapmak makul bir seçenek oluyor. Gerçi aynı ekonomik kaygılar, var olan aşıların da tüm Dünya'ya yayılması ve erişilebilir hale gelmesini zorlaştırıyor. The Lancet makalesi, kâr amacı güdülmesinden ötürü çocukların aşısız kalması konusunda şöyle yazıyor:

Küresel Aşı ve Aşılanma Birliği (GAVI), yaklaşık 129 milyon çocuğu kapsayan 2008 küresel doğum kohortuna göre çocukların %34'ünün HepB, %71'inin Hib, %92'sinin rotavirüs ve % 93'ünün pnömokok konjugat aşılarıyla aşılanmadığını tahmin etmektedir.

Elde aşısı var olan virüsler bir yana, geriye kalan ve insanlara an itibariyle bulaşabilen yüzlerce virüs türüne aynı aşı üretim, araştırma ve geliştirme önemini vermiyoruz. Kaldı ki henüz insanlara bulaşmayan ama 2019-nCoV örneğinde olduğu gibi sonradan bulaşabilir hale gelme potansiyeli olan binlerce virüse karşı önlem alabilelim! İşte bu nedenle de, bir noktada bu potansiyel tehditlerden birisi evrim geçiriyor ve ölümcül bir salgına sebep oluyor. Biz de hazırlıksız yakalanıyoruz; çünkü ne spesifik olarak o virüse hazırız ne de onun yakın akrabalarına yönelik hazır aşılarımız ve ilaçlarımız var. Olanlar da yeterince yaygın olarak erişilebilir değil.

Bunu çözmek için küresel bir çaba sarf etmek şart; çünkü güncel ekonomi-politik, anlık veya en azından kısa vadeli kâr ihtimalleri olmaksızın yatırımdan uzak duruyor. Bunu önlemek adına Batı Afrika Ebola Salgını sonrasında Epidemik Hazırlık ve İnovasyon Koalisyonu (CEPI) kuruldu. Zaten 2019-nCoV için üretilen aşılardan birinin destekçilerinden birisi de CEPI. Benzer şekilde, Küresel Aşı ve Aşılanma Birliği (GAVI) de benzer amaçlarla kuruldu. Fakat tekil koalisyonlar, sayısız potansiyel viral enfeksiyona karşı önlem almak için yeterli olmayabilir. Halkın daha fazla önlem talep etmesi ve bu yönde hükümetlere ve firmalara baskı uygulaması şart gibi gözüküyor.

Sonuç

Sonuç olarak, salgınlara artık daha fazla önem vermemiz gerektiği aşikar. Aşı karşıtlığı gibi antik düşüncelere "düşünce ve ifade özgürlüğü" maskesi altında platformlar sağlayarak, halk sağlığını doğrudan tehlikeye atıyoruz. Daha da fenası, aşıların üretilme süreçlerine gerekli miktarda fon ayırmayarak ve halk olarak daha fazla aşı talep etmeyerek bu tarz salgınların önünü kendi ellerimizle açmış oluyoruz. Eğer 2019-nCoV gibi küresel krizlerin önüne geçmek istiyorsak, daha fazla eğitime, bilime ve teknolojiye ihtiyacımız var. Veya Seth Berkley'in sözleriyle:

Aşıların üretimi çok yavaş değil. Bizler, aşılara yönelik ihtiyacı anlamak ve gerekli çabaları sarf etmek konusunda çok yavaşız.

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“Our leader forever” was a slogan one often saw in Syria during the era of President Hafez al-Assad, father of today’s Syrian president.
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The prospect that the dour, stern Syrian leader would live forever was a source of dark humor for many of my Syrian friends when I lived and worked in Aleppo in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Hafez al-Assad died in June 2000. He wasn’t immortal after all.
kra19.at
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His regime, however, lives on under the leadership of his son Bashar al-Assad.

There were moments when the Bashar regime’s survival looked in doubt. When the so-called Arab Spring rolled across the region in 2011, toppling autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, and mass protests broke out in Yemen, Bahrain and Syria, some began to write epitaphs for the Assad dynasty.

But Syria’s allies – Iran, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Russia – came to the rescue. For the past few years the struggle in Syria between a corrupt, brutal regime in Damascus and a divided, often extreme opposition seemed frozen in place.

Once shunned by his fellow Arab autocrats, Bashar al-Assad was gradually regaining the dubious respectability Arab regimes afford one another.

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Rickeywatry (doğrulanmamış) Pa, 08/12/2024 - 19:58

Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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Thomaslog (doğrulanmamış) Pa, 08/12/2024 - 20:04

Medical staff on the front line of the battle against mpox in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo have told the BBC they are desperate for vaccines to arrive so they can stem the rate of new infections.
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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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AlfredBor (doğrulanmamış) Pa, 08/12/2024 - 20:15

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At a treatment centre in South Kivu province that the BBC visited in the epicentre of the outbreak, they say more patients are arriving every day - especially babies - and there is a shortage of essential equipment.
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Mpox - formerly known as monkeypox - is a highly contagious disease and has killed at least 635 people in DR Congo this year.
Even though 200,000 vaccines, donated by the European Commission, were flown into the capital, Kinshasa, last week, they are yet to be transported across this vast country - and it could be several weeks before they reach South Kivu.
“We've learned from social media that the vaccine is already available,” Emmanuel Fikiri, a nurse working at the clinic that has been turned into a specialist centre to tackle the virus, told the BBC.
He said this was the first time he had treated patients with mpox and every day he feared catching it and passing it on to his own children - aged seven, five and one.
“You saw how I touched the patients because that's my job as a nurse. So, we're asking the government to help us by first giving us the vaccines.”
The reason it will take time to transport the vaccines is that they need to be stored at a precise temperature - below freezing - to maintain their potency, plus they need to be sent to rural areas of South Kivu, like Kamituga, Kavumu and Lwiro, where the outbreak is rife.
The lack of infrastructure and bad roads mean that helicopters could possibly be used to drop some of the vaccines, which will further drive up costs in a country that is already struggling financially.
At the community clinic, Dr Pacifique Karanzo appeared fatigued and downbeat having been rushed off his feet all morning.
Although he wore a face shield, I could see the sweat running down his face. He said he was saddened to see patients sharing beds.
“You will even see that the patients are sleeping on the floor,” he told me, clearly exasperated.
“The only support we have already had is a little medicine for the patients and water. As far as other challenges are concerned, there's still no staff motivation.”

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DanielSem (doğrulanmamış) Pa, 29/12/2024 - 03:08

Japan’s scenic hot springs town restricting tourists amid fights over the best photo spots
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Ginzan Onsen, a popular Japanese hot spring town known for its scenic snowy views, has begun limiting entry to day trippers during winter peak season, becoming another destination to tackle overtourism amid the country’s record influx of travelers.

Located in the Yamagata region about 260 miles north of Tokyo, the onsen is one of the most famous in Japan, drawing around 330,000 visitors each year.

Travelers from around the world flock to the 300-year-old town during winter not only for a dip in the onsen but its picturesque scenery of traditional Edo-period buildings blanketed in snow – speculated to be the inspiration for Oscar-winning animator Hayao Miyazaki’s film Spirited Away.

But its popularity has also caused problems for residents in the otherwise tranquil town, with reports of altercations over photo spots and parking places.

“Many guests became angry (were shouting) over good spots for the purpose of taking pictures, leading to traffic rules being broken, cheating, and making people seek better places and easier ways than others,” the onsen said on its website, regretting that its “vague management” had caused issues.

Starting January 7, those wanting to enter the onsen town after 5pm will be required to purchase a ticket, according to Ginzan Onsen Information Center. Visitors without bookings at local hotels will be banned after 8pm.

Tickets, including the bus rides, cost 1150 yen, about $7.

Those driving themselves will be required to park at a nearby tourist center and use shuttle buses to get into the town.

DonaldClerm (doğrulanmamış) Pt, 30/12/2024 - 10:51

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

“Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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“Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

MiguelLon (doğrulanmamış) Cu, 03/01/2025 - 16:33

The most exciting new trains coming in 2025
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Amazing adventures, extraordinary landscapes and fabulous cuisine — the world’s greatest railway journeys are an unforgettable experience that can immerse you in the culture of a new country.

Demand for luxury “land cruise” trains with five-star hotel-style accommodation is booming. 2025 will see several new trains take to the rails for the first time, offering new opportunities to explore Italy, France, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom.

But the best railway journeys don’t have to be the most expensive. There’s an ever-evolving world of train trips out there. Here are some of the key developments in the coming year
Two of Europe’s great capitals are now linked by their first direct high-speed train connection. Germany’s Deutsche Bahn introduced a daytime InterCity Express (ICE) service between Paris and Berlin on December 16 and is planning to add a second route between the two capitals in 2026.

Taking advantage of its new fleet of 200 mph (322 kph) ICE3neo trains, the once-a-day service takes around eight hours in each direction, also serving Strasbourg, Karlsruhe and Frankfurt on its 546-mile (878-kilometer) journey.

Fares start from around $60, and each train has capacity for 444 passengers, of which 111 can enjoy the additional comfort of leather seats and at-seat refreshments in first class.

The new high-speed ICE service is the first direct daytime train between Paris and Berlin since the 1990s and complements the Nightjet sleeper service introduced in 2023.

It may not be as fast as flying — some of the journey has to use lower speed “classic” lines to bridge gaps in the European high-speed network — but it is undoubtedly a more sustainable and more stylish way to travel across Europe.

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WilbertspaMe (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 01:29

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet US President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington on Thursday. Leon Neal/Getty Images
CNN

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to the White House on Thursday could be his final chance to convince a receptive American president of his country’s war aims.
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The precise details of the “victory plan” Zelensky plans to present in separate meetings to President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are unknown, having been closely held until they are presented to the American leaders.

But according to people briefed on its broad contours, the plan reflects the Ukrainian leader’s urgent appeals for more immediate help countering Russia’s invasion. Zelensky is also poised to push for long-term security guarantees that could withstand changes in American leadership ahead of what is widely expected to be a close presidential election between Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The plan, people familiar with it said, acts as Zelensky’s response to growing war weariness even among his staunchest of western allies. It will make the case that Ukraine can still win — and does not need to cede Russian-seized territory for the fighting to end — if enough assistance is rushed in.

That includes again asking permission to fire Western provided long-range weapons deeper into Russian territory, a line Biden once was loathe to cross but which he’s recently appeared more open to as he has come under growing pressure to relent.

Even if Biden decides to allow the long-range fires, it’s unclear whether the change in policy would be announced publicly.

Biden is usually apt to take his time making decisions about providing Ukraine new capabilities. But with November’s election potentially portending a major change in American approach to the war if Trump were to win, Ukrainian officials — and many American ones — believe there is little time to waste.
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Trump has claimed he will be able to “settle” the war upon taking office and has suggested he’ll end US support for Kyiv’s war effort.

“Those cities are gone, they’re gone, and we continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refused to make a deal, Zelensky. There was no deal that he could have made that wouldn’t have been better than the situation you have right now. You have a country that has been obliterated, not possible to be rebuilt,” Trump said during a campaign speech in Mint Hill, North Carolina, on Wednesday.

Comments like those have lent new weight to Thursday’s Oval Office talks, according to American and European officials, who have described an imperative to surge assistance to Ukraine while Biden is still in office.

As part of Zelensky’s visit, the US is expected to announce a major new security package, thought it will likely delay the shipping of the equipment due to inventory shortages, CNN previously reported according to two US officials. On Wednesday, the US announced a package of $375 million.

The president previewed Zelensky’s visit to the White House a day beforehand, declaring on the margins of the United Nations General Assembly his administration was “determined to ensure that Ukraine has what it needs to prevail in fight for survival.”
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“Tomorrow, I will announce a series of actions to accelerate support for Ukraine’s military – but we know Ukraine’s future victory is about more than what happens on the battlefield, it’s also about what Ukrainians do make the most of a free and independent future, which so many have sacrificed so much for,” he said.

Donaldnargo (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:00

Most plane crashes are ‘survivable’
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First, the good news. “The vast majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, and the majority of people in accidents survive,” says Galea. Since 1988, aircraft — and the seats inside them — must be built to withstand an impact of up to 16G, or g-force up to 16 times the force of gravity. That means, he says, that in most incidents, “it’s possible to survive the trauma of the impact of the crash.”

For instance, he classes the initial Jeju Air incident as survivable — an assumed bird strike, engine loss and belly landing on the runway, without functioning landing gear. “Had it not smashed into the concrete reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway, it’s quite possible the majority, if not everyone, could have survived,” he says.

The Azerbaijan Airlines crash, on the other hand, he classes as a non-survivable accident, and calls it a “miracle” that anyone made it out alive.
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Most aircraft involved in accidents, however, are not — as suspicion is growing over the Azerbaijan crash — shot out of the sky.

And with modern planes built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, Galea puts the chances of surviving a “survivable” accident at at least 90%.

Instead, he says, what makes the difference between life and death in most modern accidents is how fast passengers can evacuate.

Aircraft today must show that they can be evacuated in 90 seconds in order to gain certification. But a theoretical evacuation — practiced with volunteers at the manufacturers’ premises — is very different from the reality of a panicked public onboard a jet that has just crash-landed.
Galea, an evacuation expert, has conducted research for the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) looking at the most “survivable” seats on a plane. His landmark research, conducted over several years in the early 2000s, looked at how passengers and crew behaved during a post-crash evacuation, rather than looking at the crashes themselves. By compiling data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents from 1977 to 1999, his team created a database of human behavior around plane crashes.

His analysis of which exits passengers actually used “shattered many myths about aircraft evacuation,” he says. “Prior to my study, it was believed that passengers tend to use their boarding exit because it was the most familiar, and that passengers tend to go forward. My analysis of the data demonstrated that none of these myths were supported by the evidence.”

JosephSworb (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:00

Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

“Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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“While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

“South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
“This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

Eugeneledly (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:00

The survivors of recent crashes were sitting at the back of the plane. What does that tell us about airplane safety?
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Look at the photos of the two fatal air crashes of the last two weeks, and amid the horror and the anguish, one thought might come to mind for frequent flyers.

The old frequent-flyer adage is that sitting at the back of the plane is a safer place to be than at the front — and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to bear that out.
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The 29 survivors of the Azeri crash were all sitting at the back of the plane, which split into two, leaving the rear half largely intact. The sole survivors of the South Korean crash, meanwhile, were the two flight attendants in their jumpseats in the very tail of the plane.

So is that old adage — and the dark humor jokes about first and business class seats being good until there’s a problem with the plane — right after all?

In 2015, TIME Magazine reporters wrote that they had combed through the records of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000, and found in a meta-analysis that seats in the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate overall, compared with 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third.

Even better, they found, were middle seats in that back third of the cabin, with a 28% fatality rate. The “worst” seats were aisles in the middle third of the aircraft, with a 44% fatality rate.
But does that still hold true in 2024?

According to aviation safety experts, it’s an old wives’ tale.

“There isn’t any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability,” says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. “Every accident is different.”

“If we’re talking about a fatal crash, then there is almost no difference where one sits,” says Cheng-Lung Wu, associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney.

Ed Galea, professor of fire safety engineering at London’s University of Greenwich, who has conducted landmark studies on plane crash evacuations, warns, “There is no magic safest seat.”

Dannylak (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:02

A year ago today, things went from bad to worse for Boeing
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At 5 p.m. PT on January 5, 2024, Boeing seemed like a company on the upswing. It didn’t last. Minutes later, a near-tragedy set off a full year of problems.

As Alaska Airlines flight 1282 climbed to 16,000 feet in its departure from Portland, Oregon, a door plug blew out near the rear of the plane, leaving a gaping hole in the fuselage. Phones and clothing were ripped away from passengers and sent hurtling into the night sky. Oxygen masks dropped, and the rush of air twisted seats next to the hole toward the opening.
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Fortunately, those were among the few empty seats on the flight, and the crew got the plane on the ground without any serious injuries. The incident could have been far worse — even a fatal crash.

Not much has gone right for Boeing ever since. The company has had one misstep after another, ranging from embarrassing to horrifying. And many of the problems are poised to extend into 2025 and perhaps beyond.

The problems were capped by another Boeing crash in South Korea that killed 179 people on December 29 in what was in the year’s worst aviation disaster. The cause of the crash of a 15-year old Boeing jet flown by Korean discount carrier Jeju Air is still under investigation, and it is quite possible that Boeing will not be found liable for anything that led to the tragedy.
But unlike the Jeju crash, most of the problems of the last 12 months have clearly been Boeing’s fault.

And 2024 was the sixth straight year of serious problems for the once proud, now embattled company, starting with the 20-month grounding of its best selling plane, the 737 Max, following two fatal crashes in late 2018 and early 2019, which killed 346 people.

Still the outlook for 2024 right before the Alaska Air incident had been somewhat promising. The company had just achieved the best sales month in its history in December 2023, capping its strongest sales year since 2018.

It was believed to be on the verge of getting Federal Aviation Administration approval for two new models, the 737 Max 7 and Max 10, with airline customers eager to take delivery. Approvals and deliveries of its next generation widebody, the 777X, were believed to be close behind. Its production rate had been climbing and there were hopes that it could be on the verge of returning to profitability for the first time since 2018.

Jerrybic (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:20

Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

“This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

JeremyLauch (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 03:29

What’s on board this flight
Blue Origin had planned to launch a pair of Mars-bound satellites on behalf of NASA for the first flight of New Glenn.

But delays with the rocket’s development prompted the space agency to change course, moving that flight to this spring at the earliest. So for this inaugural flight, Blue Origin opted to instead fly a “demonstrator” that will test technology needed for the company’s proposed Blue Ring spacecraft — which will aim to serve as a sort of in-space rideshare vehicle, dragging satellites deeper into space when needed.
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The demonstrator on this New Glenn flight will remain aboard the rocket for the entire six-hour flight, Blue Origin said, and it will validate “communications capabilities from orbit to ground” as well as “test its in-space telemetry, tracking and command hardware, and ground-based radiometric tracking.”

The Blue Ring Pathfinder demonstrator is part of a deal Blue Origin inked with the US Department of Defense’s Defense Innovation Unit.
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Why Blue Origin wants to reuse rockets
Similar to SpaceX, Blue Origin is aiming to recover and refly its first-stage rocket boosters in a bid to make launches less expensive.

“Reusability is integral to radically reducing cost-per-launch,” the company said in a recent news release, using the same oft-repeated sentiment that SpaceX has touted since it began landing rocket boosters in 2015.
Bezos, however, has acknowledged the importance of reusing rocket parts since he founded the company in 2000 — two years before Musk established SpaceX. And the company has already developed its suborbital New Shepard tourism rocket to be reusable.
“It’s not a copy cat game,” Henry said. “Blue Origin has been pursuing reusable vehicles since before reusable vehicles were cool. Now it’s much more of a mainstream idea (because of SpaceX). The difference is that it’s taken Blue Origin so much longer to get to orbit.”

If successful, returning the New Glenn rocket booster for a safe landing will be a stunning feat. After expending most of its fuel to propel the rocket’s upper stage to space, the first-stage booster will need to make a clean separation. The booster must then maneuver with pinpoint guidance and reignite its engines with precision timing to avoid crashing into the ocean or the Jacklyn recovery platform.

Stacycax (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 04:05

Scientists have identified an estimated 10% of all species on Earth. Here’s what they found in 2024
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A toothy toadstool. A vegetarian piranha with a distinctive mark. And a pygmy pipehorse floating in the Indian Ocean shallows.

These wild wonders were among the hundreds of previously unknown species of animals, plants and fungi that scientists named and described for the first time in 2024, expanding our surprisingly limited knowledge of Earth’s diversity.

“Scientists estimate that we’ve identified only one-tenth of all species on Earth,” said Dr.
Shannon Bennett, chief of science at the California Academy of Sciences, in a statement.

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“While it is critical to place protections on known threatened species, we must also allocate resources towards identifying unknown species that may be just as important to the functioning of an ecosystem,” Bennett said.

Researchers connected to the institution described 138 new species in 2024, including 32 fish. One standout was a pygmy pipehorse named Cylix nkosi. The seahorse relative was originally found in 2021 in the cool temperate waters surrounding the North Island of New Zealand, but the species described this year was discovered in the subtropical waters off South Africa, expanding the known range of this group to the Indian Ocean

“South African reefs present notoriously difficult diving conditions with rough weather and intense, choppy waves — we knew we only had one dive to find it,” underwater photographer and marine biologist Richard Smith said in a statement.
“This species is also quite cryptic, about the size of a golf tee, but luckily we spotted a female camouflaged against some sponges about a mile offshore on the sandy ocean floor.”

The researchers involved in describing the new species chose nkosi as its name. A reference to the local Zulu word for “chief,” the name reflects the species’ crown-like head shape and acknowledges South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province where it was found.

Pedrospene (doğrulanmamış) Sa, 07/01/2025 - 04:17

Chile’s President Boric leads journey to South Pole in historic trip
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Chile’s President Gabriel Boric travelled to Antarctica’s South Pole on Friday, a place where no other Latin American president has set foot, according to the Chilean government.

Boric led the historic two-day trip, named Operation Pole Star III, to extend the environmental monitoring of pollutants on Antarctica, Chile’s government said in a statement.

He travelled with scientists, armed forces commanders and government ministers from the Chilean capital of Santiago to Punta Arenas, a city in southern Chile, public broadcaster Television Nacional de Chile (TVN) reported. From there, they made several stops before finally reaching the US-run Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station, according to TVN.
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Chile is one of seven countries that has a territorial claim in Antarctica, alongside Argentina, Australia, France, New Zealand, Norway and the United Kingdom.

It is also a signatory of the Antarctic Treaty, which dictates that the continent may only be used for peaceful and scientific purposes.

While Chile has historically carried out scientific activity in Antarctica’s northern sector, the country’s government is now hoping to expand research into the west of the continent, its statement said.
Boric called his trip to the South Pole an “honor” and a source of pride, TVN reported.

“This is a milestone for us. It is the first time a Chilean and Latin American President has visited the South Pole,” he said, according to TVN.

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